Get hired, then change roles: Possible or pipe dream?

I think it would be crazy to take the job then ask about these prospects six months later.  Ask about it now, before accepting the position.

And be realistic - if you go down this path, your managerial role will be as a supervisor of programmers.  Is this company going to need multiple programmers?  Is that the work that you want to supervise?

When I left programming, my next job was making calls in a call centre.  That led to a position supervising in the call centre, and today, I manage programmers.  If you really want out, get out, don't go for half-measures that won't satisfy you.

"If I make myself well-liked and indispensable in the original role, would it be crazy to inquire, subtly, about a new (but related) role as soon as possible?"

If you're indispensible in the original role, what are the chances your manager will want you to start doing something else instead?

Unless the company is hiring you with an eye to taking on bigger roles as it expands and mentioned that in the interview process, don't mention it.  You are not negotiating with them.  If you mention it now, there is a significant chance that they rescind the offer (which by the way, you don't have yet).

If you do get an offer and take the job, and perform well, and build great relationships, and an opportunity comes open, have a discussion with your boss at that point.  In the interim, grab any opportunity to show your management potential.  Run some meetings, create some good presentations, head a project etc.

Good luck.

I appreciate being appreciated :)

Building goodwill is definitely a good thing to do, and is an essential part of getting a promotion, yes.

Regarding the "Will they need multiple programmers?" question, it was genuinely intended as a question.  Maybe they're going to need a lot of programmers.  Maybe not.  I have no way of knowing.  "Be realistic" was intended as those literal words, but I can understand that it may have been received as something with a negative tone.

Given that they need multiple programmers, I think it would be perfectly reasonable to say "Given my previous experience as a team leader, I was hoping that once I had proven myself as someone who delivers results, that you would consider me as a leader when that area expands."  The only problem is that they'd be likely to agree on that point, no matter what their actual intentions are.

It is definitely possible to transition to another industry.  When I did that, I started at the very bottom and worked my way up again.  If you want to start at somewhere that isn't the bottom, you need experience that's relevant to the specific role you're aiming for.  Programmers tend to be regarded as ultra-specialised (because they usually are), and therefore it can be difficult to present that experience as relevant to a fundamentally different job.  (Not saying it's impossible, just saying that I don't know how to do it.)

In terms of a specific negotiating tactic, you might want to use "What kind of future do you imagine for me at this company after I've proven myself in this role?"  It hints at 'promote me', but is open-ended enough that you're not feeding them the answer you want to hear.

I think that it's good that you're preparing for negotiation before it happens, even though it's possible that it won't.

I felt I must interject here. I have been in management for over a decade, and have managed a lot of projects both successful and failures. @Jasons, from the perspective of a PM if you are having problems working on your job, then you are no longer an indispensable member of the team.  However, don't spend time trying to build goodwill with the intent of greasing the wheels for a lateral movement. You said the company was small, so unfortunately that means they have someone occupying the position currently leaving you waiting for an indeterminate amount of time. I am in the same boat as you, I am looking to transition to a larger company, the freedom of decisions that I have with my smaller company is of course offset by lower pay and extra expectations. I needed to know exactly what other companies were paying for an average project manager jobwww.glassdoor.com/Job/project-manager-jobs-SRCH_KO0,15.htm. I found a site which highlights comparative analysis on a per career basis. I basically learned what each top company pays for jobs based on scope and  job specification. I know they have information for programmer engineer jobs as well. This helped me make a career decision with more education, so I hope it helps you.

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JasonS, you sound very passionate about this company and because of that I would take the offer.  It sounds like you and this company are a great fit.  If this was just another company that you were not so excited for, I would recommend you pass. 

I would take the role, perform to a level of excellence and build your internal network.  I believe if you come off as a professional with a lot of upside and initiate a plan, this organization with see that and reward you.  The key is the planning of it.  Once on the inside, learn everything you can about the desired role and when possible demonstrate skills that are in harmony with that role.  If possible, see if you can be delegated some of the tasks or projects on that role.  See if you can get on any committees with people in that area of the company.  Does the company have a committee for holiday parties, etc...?  Get on that committee, you want to build a network that will allow you to grow in the company.